- TL;DR Download this spreadsheet and look up your pledge date in the table. If you are really keen you can update the values in the sheet called "Production Data !UPDATE ME!" from this website to get a better estimate.
Loads of people are very excited about backing the Pebble smartwatch at Kickstarter, because if they gave a certain amount of money they would be given a Pebble once production began. The small polished stones will ship out in roughly the order that people backed the Kickstarter project. This makes it easy to guestimate when your Pebble will be made; all you need to know is the date you backed the Pebble project at Kickstarter (try searching your emails for "Backer Pebble")...
So how do you do it?
Pebble are giving updates on how production is going in near real time:
On the 30th Jan 2013 about 1500 Pebbles were made, taking the total to 8000 produced so far.
It is also easy to look up how many backers there were on each day the Kickstarter ran for:
For example by the 25th April 2012 40376 people had backed the project, most of these are in the queue to be sent a Pebble as a reward for supporting the project.
If you backed on the 25th April then it will take about "people in the queue in front of you (minus the pebbles already made) divided by production per day" days to get to your place in the queue. i.e. (40376-8000)/1070=30 days (I reduced the production rate to account for no production on weekends).
To make this a bit easier to calculate I made this spreadsheet. Just download it and look up the estimated production date based on your pledge date in the table. At the moment this is what it looks like as a graph:
Pebble are hoping to ramp up production to 2500 Pebbles a day. That will make a huge difference to estimated production dates, roughly halving the wait. To update the spreadsheets estimate fill in updated values from http://www.ispebbleshipping.com/ in the "Production Data !UPDATE ME!" sheet. All the estimated production dates will be recalculated automatically.
This is just an estimate! And it is a pretty bad estimate based on very little data. Don't blame me if it's wrong.